July 11, 2021

Update on Predict My Step Score

Just wanted to address several things since I’ve been getting a lot of the same questions and people are starting to get their scores back

  1. How accurate are the predictions for Step 1 with the new NBMEs?

At this point I would say that the data is good enough to give semi-accurate scores. Some of you have noticed that the confidence interval is pretty wide and that’s just because of the lack of data but overall things are on the right track. As to whether the tests over-predict or under-predict I can not accurately say at this time.

  1. How accurate are the predictions for Step 3?

Worse than the new NBME for Step 1. Just don’t have enough data. I estimate in about 6 months there should be enough data to make accurate predictions

  1. Is the site more accurate than the reddit excel sheet?

Yea. I gather data from other sites which helps get rid of the overprediction bias seen on Reddit since everyone here is a 280+ gunner (jk jk)

  1. Do you have any plans on charging for the site or will you sell me the data?

No plans on charging for access to the site since med school is expensive enough but eventually if I find this to be time consuming I may have to place ads. No plans on giving out the data cuz I know some asshole will charge people for it.

Let me know if you have any feedback. One day I’ll get around to making it easier to use.

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